What We Learned from Week 1

By Totals 4 U

Hello, Sports Fans! Coming off a fine 12-3 effort on your 2016 NFL Preseason Week 1 Totals, we’re taking a quick look today at how the stats for the openers shook out…

On the Totals Side, a combined 597 points were scored last week in 16 games for an average of 37.3 points per game. Compared to an average closing line of 36.4, a small “Over” advantage was yielded of 0.9 points per game and the results mirrored this modest edge. For the week 8 games finished over, 7 games under, with 1 push.

Over on the Covers Side, we saw much more dramatic trends that flipped after the initial set of Thursday games.

On Thursday, we saw 5 of 6 home teams cover and 4 of 6 favorite teams cash the ticket. Ride the home favs, yes? Not so much. In fact, jumping on that trend would have been very expensive. Over the remaining 10 games we saw 8 of 10 road teams cover the number while an amazing 9 of 10 underdogs got the money. In the end, home teams finished 7-9 against the line while the favorites only managed 5-11.

So what’s the trend, what’s the lesson?

After a couple decades of this pursuit we can tell you the magic answer is…don’t give much weight to trends and don’t look for many lessons! Sorry, folks, but it’s the truth. Every game must be approached individually, in solely the circumstances in play right now. Never let the last result have an exaggerated effect on the next, simply because it was the most recent, and there’s just no replacement for doing the work.

Just like life!

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– TD at Totals 4 You